“January was on fire!” says the Senior Climatologist for Environment Canada of what is normally regarded as the coldest and cruellest month of the winter in southern Manitoba.

Indeed, according to David Phillips, the average temperature during the first month of the year was nearly seven degrees above normal, one of the warmest on record. Following the months of December and November which were also both warmer than normal, Phillips says “it is almost as though winter has been cheated.”

Taking those three most recent months into account, Phillips offers a comparison. Typically, southern Manitoba usually has about ten days that are colder than -30 degrees by this time; this year there has been only one. Likewise, an average year would have about thirty-eight days below -20; up until now, there have been only fourteen.

“It is the perfect kind of a winter for a pandemic because people don’t have to hibernate and instead they can get out and enjoy the sunshine,” he says. “In a cold region where winter is king, my gosh, it's been anything but!”

While balmy weather has been the trend, he says that is all about to change, despite what Manitoba’s ceremonial groundhogs may be indicating.

“When the smelly old rodent doesn’t see his shadow you’ll be seduced into thinking okay, winter is over, and then all of the sudden a polar vortex is going to arrive,” he states. “Last week Wednesday we had a little teaser of that.”

Phillips says the handful of frigid days southern Manitoba has felt this winter will be nothing compared to the prolonged period of cold predicted in the coming weather front. In the next few days, temperatures are expected to plummet between 12 and 14 degrees below the seasonal average.

To further discount the groundhog’s credibility, Phillips takes a further examination of the age-old ritual. Groundhog lore would state that if the animal sees its shadow, spring is right around the corner and if not, one can anticipate six more long weeks of winter. To Phillips, neither option sounds particularly pessimistic.

“If you could guarantee me that winter in would be over on March 15th, I would take that in a heartbeat,” he muses. “Because March can go on, April can be nasty, and you can even have snow and cold in May! If the bad news is that winter will be over in six weeks, for us that would still be a positive headline.”

To those who prefer the advice of a professional climatologist to a hole-dwelling rodent, Phillips submits his own long-range forecast. He expects February’s temperatures will start rather cold but slowly average out. Meanwhile, his best guess for March and April is that temperatures will rise again and hover slightly above the usual.