Old Farmer's Almanac predicts mild fall, no snow until mid-October

It appears the weather trend of warmer and drier than normal will continue this fall in southern Manitoba. That is according to The Old Farmer's Almanac.

Managing Editor Jack Burnett says our average temperature this fall will be about one degree warmer than normal, while our total precipitation will come in about 20 millimetres below average.

"So a good fall," remarks Burnett. "Nothing to be worried about in any sense whatsoever."

If you do not enjoy snow before Thanksgiving, you should welcome what The Old Farmer's Almanac is forecasting. Burnett says it looks like the first snow showers should hit us around October 18 to 20. He notes the heavier snow showers should arrive around November 20th.

The Old Farmer's Almanac has also just released its winter weather outlook. For southern Manitoba, it will be a winter that is milder than normal but slightly wetter, which means less precipitation in the form of snow.

Winter outlook by The Old Farmer's Almanac.

"Because the temperatures will be not quite so cold, there will be more instances of sleet and freezing rain I'm sad to say," notes Burnett.

According to Burnett, they are anticipating a very cold Christmas in southern Manitoba. In fact, it is expected to be very cold from about December 21st to 31st. Then, the middle ten days of January are expected to be both very cold and snowy. And, though the snowfall is expected to be spread throughout the winter, Burnett says the heavy-duty doses of snow are expected at the end of November, the middle of January and the first week of March.

As for heavy snowstorms or blizzards, Burnett says those will likely happen this winter, but their computer models are not pointing to specific timeframes for when these are most likely to occur.

The Old Farmer's Almanac has also released its summer weather outlook for southern Manitoba. Burnett says we can expect next summer to be a little cooler and a bit drier than normal.

When it comes to making forecasts, Burnett says they rely on a recipe that was first used by Robert B. Thomas in 1792. Burnett says when Thomas first started making weather forecasts he took three things into consideration. The first factor was meteorology, which is the localized weather phenomenon that is caused by factors such as mountains, lakes or localized winds.

The second factor was climatology, which is long-term weather patterns for a particular area. And the third factor was solar science. Burnett says through the use of computers, they can find a pattern in history where the weather trends then resemble patterns today. Then, by learning what happened next in history, they can determine what is most likely to happen in our future.

Burnett says their forecasts are completed up to two years in advance. He notes last year's forecast was 78.5 per cent accurate.