Expect a hot summer for southern Manitoba. In fact, David Phillips with Environment Canada says it should be a hot summer for all of southern Canada, from Vancouver Island to Bonavista.
Phillips says there is something in weather called, persistence. He notes what you see is what you are going to get. Phillips says it takes a lot to turn around the weather. And now that the cold cycle seems to behind us, Environment Canada is calling for the months of June, July and August to be warmer than normal.
As for precipitation, Phillips admits that is very difficult to forecast long range. But he says it looks to be drier than normal for the western Prairies, which could extend to southeastern Manitoba. Phillips says private weather services and even models from the United States all seem to be pointing towards a warmer than normal and drier than normal summer.
According to Phillips, a lot could be determined over the next four weeks. He says June is typically our wettest month and 40 percent of our annual rainfall happens from late May to early July.
Meanwhile, southern Manitoba is coming through two months that were polar opposites. Phillips confirms it was the coldest April in 22 years, followed by the warmest May in 30 years. He says the average high in April was 8 degrees, while in May it was 23 degrees. In fact, there were six days last month where the mercury reached 30 degrees when we normally see nine of those in an entire year. The warmest day in May was on the 25th when we peaked at nearly 33 degrees.
In terms of precipitation, Phillips says we received 49 millimetres of rain in Steinbach in May, which is below the historical average of 69 millimetres. Nearly all of that fell in the last two weeks. According to Phillips, we have received only 55 percent of normal precipitation since January 1st. He says we are in a moisture deficit situation.