Elevated risk of major spring flooding on Red River, but outlook improves

There remains a high risk of major spring flooding along the Red River main stem, according to the Manitoba Hydrologic Forecast Centre’s update on Thursday, but compared to February's outlook, projections have improved.

The current soil moisture is normal to above normal throughout the basin, and winter precipitation has been above normal to record high.

Under favourable weather conditions, the risk of flooding is major, with levels similar to spring peak levels observed in 2019 from Emerson to the Red River Floodway Inlet.

With unfavourable weather conditions there would be a high risk of major flooding, with levels on the Red River main stem similar to 2011 from Emerson to Red River Floodway Inlet.

The flood protection level of the community dikes, and the individual flood protection works within the Red River basin, are higher than the predicted peak levels, even in the unfavourable weather scenario.

Roseau River

There is a risk of moderate to major flooding on the Roseau River. The basin has received above normal snowfall and has near normal soil moisture.

Favourable weather: risk of minor flooding. The forecasted flow for Roseau River at Gardenton (2,900 cfs) would be similar to spring peak flow observed in 2017.

Normal weather: risk of moderate flooding. The forecasted flow for Roseau River at Gardenton (3,500 cfs) would be similar to spring peak flow observed in 2020.

Unfavourable weather: risk of major flooding. The forecasted flow for Roseau River at Gardenton (4,100 cfs) would be slightly higher than the spring peak flow observed in 2009.

Pembina River

There is a high risk of moderate to major flooding on the Pembina River. The basin has received near normal snowfall and has near normal soil moisture.

Favourable weather: risk of minor flooding. Forecasted flow for Pembina River at Neche (4,300 cfs) would be similar to spring peak flow observed in 2005.

Normal weather: risk of moderate flooding. Forecasted flow for Pembina River at Neche (5,800 cfs) would be similar to spring peak flow observed in 2013.

Unfavourable weather: risk of major flooding. Forecasted flow (7,700 cfs) would be lower than spring peak flow observed in 2017.

Communities throughout the Southeast will continue to deal with localized flooding as frozen drains and ice buildup continues to be a challenge.

In Kleefeld, residents of Barak Drive had to navigate a flooded street earlier this week.

Since the, a significant amount of water has drained but there is still a fair amount of water on the street.